The space race has resurfaced, with the US and its allies facing Russia and China. With hundreds of spacecraft, satellites can be destroyed, and military operations rely on space-based communications. China explores counterspace technology, while gaps in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty contribute to threats…
Russia’s failed lunar mission and India’s successful moon mission, Chandrayaan 3, demonstrate space competition’s rising ferocity. The final Cold War between the US and the USSR included the space race. After the Cold War, the space race lost political relevance. Space progress was a gentlemanly technological race without political implications. That time is over too. The Cold War space competition is back, with the US and its allies facing Russia and China.
This next space race may be more dangerous than the first. The Cold War space competition began early in space technology. The perils were mostly for pioneers. Beyond that, the US only risked bruised emotions following Soviet achievements in the 1950s. The Soviets suffered when the Americans won the Moon race.
The space environment has changed drastically. Today, space is filled with hundreds of spacecraft from numerous governments and private businesses, instead of two superpowers with a few civilian and commercial satellites. Many parts of our life are affected by civilian space technologies. Telecommunication, earth observation, navigation, telemedicine, tele-education are examples. The global economy would suffer without space access. However, such is the risk now. Satellites may be destroyed intentionally or accidentally when big nations compete and distrust one other. Military operations increasingly depend on space-based communications and monitoring as more nations invest in military space technologies. This is an attractive target since killing them would severely limit the enemy. Some are already happening in the Ukraine war. The Ukrainians’ huge gain from Starlink communication systems and Elon Musk’s efforts to restrict access to Ukraine heighten the role of private players in war. Russians have also tried to block Ukrainian Starlink connectivity. A losing party can knock down an enemy’s satellites to impede its military activities.
China has been exploring with counterspace technology. For decades, there existed an informal ban on anti-satellite (ASAT) missile testing. In January 2007, China violated it. This led other countries to establish or resume ASAT programs, prompting US and Indian testing. China is also testing ground-based lasers to blind satellites and dual-use space retrieval systems to harm each other’s spacecraft.
The mounting threats and lack of governance systems to address conflicts match. This does not mean space lacks government. Several measures, including the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST), helped preserve space during the Cold War, although the OST and related accords include several gaps and uncertainties. For instance, the OST exclusively regulates WMD. Non-WMD weapons are not forbidden under the OST, a major gap. The OST and other legislative measures fail to address modern issues like counterspace capabilities.
The 2008 draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects sponsored by Russia and China, the EU-initiated International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities (2010), the 2013 UN Group of Governmental Experts on Transparency and Confidence Building Measures (TCBMs), and the 2018-19 GGE on further practice are some recent space global governance proposals. The UN’s 2022-2023 open-ended working group on mitigating space risks will have its final and fourth session from August 28 to September 1, 2023. Despite the fact that an agreement benefits all nations, most of these attempts have failed. Intensifying international tensions make success improbable.
Conclusion:-
The space race has resurfaced, with the US and its allies facing Russia and China. With hundreds of spacecraft, satellites can be destroyed, and military operations rely on space-based communications. China is exploring counterspace technology, while gaps in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty contribute to threats. The global economy would suffer without space access, and satellites can be destroyed intentionally or accidentally. Military operations increasingly depend on space-based communications and monitoring, as more nations invest in military space technologies. The Ukraine war highlights the role of private players in war, with Russia and China attempting to block access to Ukraine’s Starlink communication systems. China is also testing ground-based lasers to blind satellites and dual-use space retrieval systems to harm each other’s spacecraft. The lack of governance systems to address conflicts and mounting threats match the lack of government in space. Recent space global governance proposals include the 2008 draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the EU-initiated International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities, the 2013 UN Group of Governmental Experts on Transparency and Confidence Building Measures, and the 2018-19 GGE on further practice.
